Capital still flows into gold as a hedge

  • by VNBUSINESS
  • March 01, 2014

According to the latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC), Vietnam ranks seventh in the world"s total gold consumption in 2013. Fluctuation of the prices of the precious metal has drawn the attention from not only speculators but also people who keep it as a hedge.

gold investment, hedge

The sharp decline of the gold price after three months has made the transactions in golds vibrantly. An insight by the Vietnam Business Forum, the weekly magazine of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The domestic gold price is being adjusted after reaching its highest level in the recent three months. Gold trading becomes thriving in the period the market is still fluctuating. On early morning of February 20, the price of gold fell by 250,000 VND (14 USD) per tael (one tael equals 1.2 troy ounces) compared to the previous day. The Doji Group listed the gold price down from 36.37 million VND to 36.45 million VND per tael. This is the lowest level since the market rose sharply from mid-May.

Contrary to many pessimistic forecasts in 2014, the gold price has increased significantly since the beginning of the year. Ending the session on February 17 in the US, each additional ounce of gold rose by 10 USD to 1,329 USD.

Although the price of gold has been readjusted after that, the investors are forced to reconsider their assessment of the gold price this year.

The driving forces to support the gold price which come from the concerns of the economic growth of the US and the devaluation of the US dollar have led to the investment in gold, pushing up the precious metal prices to the highest level since early November last year. Since the beginning of the year, the gold prices have increased by 10 percent after falling by 28 percent last year.

T he domestic market is put in the same scenario in which the domestic gold price always climbs faster than the world price and goes down more slowly.

The difference between two markets is made bigger at 2.7-2.9 million VND per tael. Converted at the bank rate, a tael of gold on the world market is equivalent to about 33.79 million VND, not including taxes, fees and processing. The domestic price is at around 36.37 million VND to 36.45 million VND per tael.

On the world"s major markets, the price of is expected to continue to rise again, that of the contract of April has been increasing in the nine consecutive sessions, the longest rise since May 7, 2011.

The price tends to increase since the domestic demand for gold has increased due to the concerns of the rising price in the future.

Suppliers have certified that the gold sales have increased sharply. The PNJ company said that the volume of gold transacted on February 25 had increased while the sales were virtually unchanged. At the gold selling points, the number of buyers had increased by 20 to 30 percent compared to the time before the Lunar New Year.

It is said that the gold price has been adjusted differently from that at the beginning of the year.

The WGC"s report predicts the gold price could rebound this year while the sales of the trust funds will slow down. However, this year"s sales are not strong; the SPRD Gold Trust, the largest world gold trust fund, has just sold only a small amount.

According to the Trend Report 2013 of the WGC, the gold demand will rise sharply in 2014. The WGC estimates that the gold demands in the Vietnamese market in the last year are equal to 92.2 tonnes, worth more than 4.1 billion USD. Both the demands for gold jewelry and investment tend to increase.

Notably, the demand for the precious metal has fallen by 15 percent on the international markets but increased by 20 percent in Vietnam in 2013. Vietnamese people put special trust in this precious metal. It is reasonable to predict that gold demand will not rebound strongly this year as the price is expected to rise.

This year the economy is still projected to be difficult. The savings rates tend to fall due to the stagnation of manufacturing business operation. The inflation which has been curbed for the past three years is under the risk of returning. This makes many people decide to buy gold to secure their capital and wait for a better economy.

The gold price has risen by 10 percent at the beginning of the new year, which makes people more determined to buy gold to avoid the idle cash. It is also a fact that in the Vietnamese market, people often rush to buy gold once the "gold fever" signals a start. However, the loss caused by the sharp decline of the gold price has made the buyers more cautious. This makes people be cautious of their investment in gold even though the price declines after the "gold fever" period.

Source: VBF

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